The facts
President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low in the Wall Street Journal's polling, USA Today reported: 37 percent, the lowest for an incumbent president heading into the midterms since the Journal began polling in 1990.
The poll, released over the weekend, found 65 percent of Americans said the economy was not strong, and 60 percent said Trump's policies have made the economy worse. The poll was conducted Sept. 16-21 among 1,500 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The most comparable number since 1990 was George W. Bush's 39 percent ahead of the 2006 midterms, when Democrats gained five Senate seats and 31 House seats and took control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in a decade. Twenty years later, polls show that many Americans are critical of the war in Iran. Democrats have held leads of five to 11 percentage points over the GOP in multiple surveys when participants were asked who they want to control Congress.
Polling averages from Sept. 28 tell the same story: RealClearPolitics had Trump at 38.7 percent approve and 59.9 percent disapprove; the New York Times at 37 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove; Silver Bulletin at 37.4 percent approve and 60.1 percent disapprove.
Our take
Thirty-seven percent. That is the worst pre-midterm approval number the Wall Street Journal has ever recorded, and the Journal has been polling since 1990, which means it has measured some genuinely catastrophic presidencies. Trump just beat them all with his own special brand of shit.
His only company is George W. Bush in 2006, who was standing in the rubble of Iraq at 39 percent and still managed to do two points better. Voters responded to that number by handing Democrats the House and the Senate. The current polling has Democrats up five to 11 points on who should control Congress, which suggests the country has learned nothing and forgotten nothing about how bad things can get when an asshole stays in charge.
Sixty percent say his policies made the economy worse. Sixty-five percent say the economy is not strong. So who exactly is the 37 percent? That's the floor, the people who would approve of a man standing in a burning room while he explains that the smoke is actually very good for you and the flames are just a deep state hoax.
The poll from Sept. 16-21 among 1,500 registered voters with a plus or minus 2.5 margin shows the same pattern across every average. RealClearPolitics sits at 38.7 approve and 59.9 disapprove. The New York Times clocks in at 37 approve and 60 disapprove. Silver Bulletin lands at 37.4 approve and 60.1 disapprove. Every single one of them paints the same picture of a president whose support has turned to ash.
Trump's numbers are not just low. They are the lowest the Journal has seen before any midterm since it started asking the question. That means he has managed to outdo every other incumbent who faced voters in the middle of their term. The 65 percent who call the economy not strong and the 60 percent who blame his policies are not abstract. They are the reason the approval floor sits at 37 and refuses to rise.
The 37 percent who still approve are the ones clinging to the idea that everything is fine while the data says the opposite. They are the dedicated base that would rate a dumpster fire as cozy warmth. The rest of the country has already moved on to deciding who takes the chambers next, and the leads show they are not planning to keep the current setup.
