The facts
Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the surge in U.S. gasoline prices is no longer caused by the Strait of Hormuz but by Russian refineries being hit by Ukraine and domestic refineries closing in blue states such as California. Al Jazeera notes that daily oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen about 97 % since the war began, tightening global supplies. The American Automobile Association reports the average U.S. gasoline price has risen to $4.36 per gallon, up from $4.14 a month earlier. Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security said the Iran‑Israel conflict and Russia‑Ukraine war are both straining oil markets, though Middle‑Eastern flows remain abnormal. G7 leaders agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence claims it has disabled more than half of Russia’s refining capacity. S&P Global analysis shows California refinery closures have cut the state’s capacity by 17 %. An AP‑NORC poll found 65 % of Americans blame Trump’s policies for higher fuel prices.
Our take
Donald Trump, ever the master of deflection, turned his Truth Social feed into a blame‑the‑other‑guy sermon, insisting that the real culprits behind America’s gas‑price nightmare are Ukrainian missiles and “Dumocrat” shutdowns in California. He conveniently sidesteps the fact that the Strait of Hormuz – the literal chokepoint for a third of the world’s seaborne oil – has seen exports plunge by roughly 97 % since the war erupted, a collapse that is directly feeding higher pump prices. Meanwhile, the G7’s emergency release of 100 million barrels and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s dip to its lowest point since 1982 underscore how strained the supply chain really is. Yet Trump’s narrative paints Ukraine as a rogue saboteur and paints blue‑state politicians as the villains, a storyline that fits neatly into his election‑year playbook. The reality, as Rachel Ziemba points out, is a tangled web of Middle‑Eastern disruptions, Russian refinery damage, and domestic capacity losses – none of which are simple partisan conspiracies. The AP‑NORC poll, showing 65 % of Americans blaming Trump’s own policies, is a stark reminder that voters see through the smoke. In the end, Trump’s version of the story is less about oil economics and more about scoring political points, a tactic that may rally his base but does little to illuminate the actual market dynamics. The only thing he’s truly refining is a narrative that turns complex geopolitics into a cartoonish blame game, leaving everyday drivers to foot the bill while the real issues fester beneath the surface. The take? The man’s grasp on reality is as thin as the oil flowing through a strait that’s practically empty. Fucking absurd.
