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The facts
Oman's Maritime Security Centre stated that two sailors are missing and 23 others have been rescued following an attack on the oil tanker El Gaia in the Strait of Hormuz. The Panama-flagged vessel was being towed to an Omani port on Tuesday after a fire erupted in its engine room. The attack occurred 1.3 nautical miles north of the Musandam peninsula. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed on Monday that the tanker had hit naval mines and caught fire while transiting a restricted route. However, the US military disputed this, stating the Iranian report was false and that the tanker was struck by an Iranian missile last month and then by a drone over the weekend. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported receiving information about a fire on a vessel struck by an unknown projectile in the early hours of Sunday while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization has recorded at least 79 confirmed incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East since late February, resulting in 22 seafarer deaths. Separately, Iran's Fars news agency reported that "enemy drones" targeted two fishing boats near the Iranian port of Kargan overnight, with several fishermen reported missing. A spokesman for the US military's Central Command (Centcom) told Axios that US forces destroyed two boats that attempted to steal a sea drone.
Our take
The Strait of Hormuz has become a fucking theme park ride designed by a coked-up warlord, where the main attraction is guessing which Iranian projectile will set your boat on fire today. The latest guests of honor are the crew of the oil tanker El Gaia, who got to enjoy a complimentary engine room barbecue after an 'incident.' Oman, playing the weary concierge, reports two sailors missing and 23 rescued. The location? A cool 1.3 nautical miles off the Musandam peninsula, which is basically the 'You Are Now Entering the Fuck Around Zone' sign for this whole shitshow.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the official storytellers for the Islamic Republic's Ministry of Creative Bullshit, have a go-to narrative for these occasions. Did a ship suddenly explode? It must have hit some mysterious, free-floating naval mines! Never mind that the US military, with its usual lack of poetic flair, says the tanker was actually struck by an Iranian missile last month and then finished off with a drone over the weekend. The UK's maritime watchdogs just got a report of a fire after an 'unknown projectile' hit a vessel. 'Unknown,' in this context, translates directly from the Farsi for 'definitely Iranian.'
This isn't even a new bit for Tehran. It's their greatest fucking hit. Earlier this month, they pulled the same 'naval mine' routine after two Filipino sailors were killed on a Saudi supertanker. Saudi Arabia said Iran targeted it. Security firms said it was hit by projectiles. Iran said it was a mine. It's like a toddler caught with a hand in the cookie jar, insisting a ghost made the crumbs. The International Maritime Organization is keeping a depressing scorecard: 79 confirmed incidents, 22 dead sailors since February. That's not a shipping lane; it's a shooting gallery where the prizes are charred hulls and funeral notices.
Meanwhile, the side plots are just as unhinged. Iran's own Fars news agency reports that 'enemy drones' attacked two Iranian fishing boats near Kargan, leaving fishermen missing. Who are these enigmatic enemies with drones in the strait Iran claims to control? Couldn't be the same folks whose sea drone the Iranians just tried to jack, could it? Oh wait, yes it could. Because Centcom says it just destroyed two Iranian boats that tried to steal a US drone. So Iran is crying about drone attacks while its own goons are out there trying to pinch one. The cognitive dissonance is so thick you could walk on it from Musandam to Kargan.
The whole strait, a chokepoint for a fifth of the world's oil and gas, is functionally closed. It's blocked by Iranian missiles and drones on one side and a US naval blockade on the other. They had a tentative deal to end this in June, which lasted about as long as a ice cube in the engine room of the El Gaia. Iran resumed attacks, the US resumed the blockade, and now we're back to the daily ritual of explosions, missing persons, and fantastical lies. Iran insists it won't give up control of the waterway, so it's targeting vessels that dare use a southern route through Omani waters to avoid Iran's preferred path. They want you to use their road, but they also reserve the right to blow up your car if you do. It's the world's most hostile toll booth.
So here we are. Sailors are missing. Tankers are burning. Official statements are worthless. And the only thing navigating the Strait of Hormuz reliably is a torrent of weaponized, flaming bullshit.
