The facts
Fears of a return to civil war in Ethiopia have intensified following an offensive by Tigrayan rebels into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions and the formation of a new rebel alliance. The alliance, announced on Sunday and including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), aims to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. On Wednesday, the TPLF seized control of three airports, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the region. A humanitarian source in Afar reported heavy artillery attacks by the TPLF on Thursday as they attempted to take control of the town of Yallo. Residents in Tigray expressed fears of siege conditions, recalling the devastating 2020-2022 war that killed about 600,000 people. The TPLF’s vice-president, Amanuel Assefa, stated, “We are in the situation of full-blown war now.” The Ethiopian army reported foiling attacks and inflicting casualties on enemy fighters. Analysts suggest the TPLF may have support from Eritrea, though Assefa denied knowledge of Eritrean plans. The renewed fighting challenges the 2022 Pretoria agreement and raises concerns about regional stability.
Our take
So the TPLF, the crew that just finished starring in a two-year horror show that wiped out a population the size of Boston, has decided the sequel needs to start shooting immediately. Their big opening weekend move? Seizing three fucking airports. Not for humanitarian aid flights, you understand, but presumably so they can get a better aerial view of the artillery they’re raining down on the town of Yallo. Ethiopian Airlines, in a rare moment of corporate sense, looked at the runway now controlled by the guys who started this whole shitstorm and said, ‘Yeah, we’ll pass.’
This new ‘rebel alliance’ announced on Sunday has one stated goal: overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. That’s it. That’s the entire platform. No policy proposals, no five-point plan for economic recovery - just ‘fuck that guy in particular.’ They’ve dusted off the old playbook from the 2020-2022 war, a conflict so catastrophically stupid it managed to kill roughly 600,000 people. Now residents in Tigray are reportedly terrified of a return to siege conditions, which is like surviving a house fire only to watch your neighbor gleefully pour gasoline on his own living room couch.
The Ethiopian army, for its part, is claiming it ‘foiled attacks’ and ‘inflicted casualties.’ This is the military equivalent of shouting ‘I meant to do that!’ after your opponent punches you in the face and steals your wallet. The whole situation makes the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement look less like a diplomatic triumph and more like a sticky note that read ‘maybe don’t?’ which someone has now used to wipe their ass.
Then there’s the spicy subplot of potential Eritrean involvement. Analysts are whispering about it, while the TPLF’s vice-president, Amanuel Assefa, claims he has no knowledge of Eritrean plans. This is the political version of ‘Who, me?’ while standing in a room full of broken glass holding a hammer. The man openly declared, ‘We are in the situation of full-blown war now,’ which is a hell of a thing to say when you’re the one who just started the full-blown war. It’s like a burglar kicking in a door and then complaining about the noise.
The sheer, breathtaking audacity of reigniting a conflict of this scale - with all its known, horrific consequences - for the same old game of musical chairs over who gets to be the biggest bastard in Addis Ababa is a special kind of evil. It’s a middle finger so large it’s visible from space, aimed directly at every corpse buried from the last round and every civilian now praying they don’t become a statistic in the next one. They’re not fighting for a better future; they’re fighting because they’d rather see the country burn than let someone else hold the matches.
