The facts
The Cato Institute reported on Sept. 28, 2026 that legal immigration by nationals of 45 majority-Muslim countries fell 96 percent between December 2024 and February 2026. The count is State Department immigrant-visa issuances plus lawful refugee admissions. It went from 21,096 people in December 2024 to 808 in February 2026, a drop of 20,288, or 96.2 percent. Cato says the same comparison with February 2024 is nearly as steep, so this is not a winter lull.
Immigrant visas, which Cato says are primarily for family of US citizens, fell about 95 percent. Refugee admissions from those countries fell from 5,157 in December 2024 to zero in February 2026.
Afghanistan was 27 percent of the entire drop: 5,563 legal immigrants and refugees in December 2024, then 9 in February 2026, a 99.8 percent decline. Pakistan fell by 2,963 people, from 3,026 to 63, or 97.9 percent. Syria went from 1,897 to 10. Somalia went from 1,292 to 4. Yemen went from 1,181 to 5. Only Qatar, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates increased. Turkey had the smallest decline, about 8 percent, from 346 to 318.
Cato ties the collapse to two restrictions that specifically covered 34 of the 45 countries: a 40-country entry ban and a 75-country immigrant-visa suspension. The eleven not on those lists are Bahrain, Brunei, Djibouti, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, and the UAE. Most of those still shrank. Saudi Arabia fell 57 percent. Cato's chart shows the line bending down when the new administration starts, then dropping off a cliff after January 2026.
On the same measure, legal immigration from countries that are not majority-Muslim fell 36 percent. The 45 countries were 33 percent of the December 2024 total and 57 percent of the cut. If the February pace held, Cato projects about 40,000 immigrants and refugees from these countries in fiscal 2026, which it says would be the lowest in at least 30 years and nearly 80 percent below 2024. That is a projection, not a finished year. The published data stop in February 2026.
This is not a count of Muslims. It is a count of passports. David Bier, posting the findings, said about 28 percent of the refugees from these countries were Christian or another non-Muslim religion. It is also not a count of illegal crossings, and it is not a count of people already living here.
Cato is an open-immigration shop. The post is written as a complaint. During the 2024 campaign, Cato notes, Trump said he would bring back a ban stricter than the one in his first term. Cato's verdict is that he did.
Our take
Cato treats a visa like a civil right, ran the State Department tape, and published the cliff as a funeral. The funeral is 21,096 down to 808. The refugee line is even ruder. It is zero.
Afghanistan did a quarter of the damage by itself. Five thousand five hundred and sixty-three, then nine. Pakistan lost about three thousand. Syria, Somalia, and Yemen are leftovers. The visas that died were mostly family visas, the spouses and kids Cato wants you to sob over. A nationality screen that leaves the family pipeline open is not a screen. It is a suggestion.
Thirty-four of the forty-five countries got an actual ban or a visa freeze. The eleven that did not still mostly shrank. Turkey barely flinched. Qatar, Indonesia, and the UAE went up. So spare the speech about seasons and vibes. Somebody wrote a list, and the list worked. The rest of the world on this same chart fell 36 percent. These passports were a third of the old number and more than half of the cut.
Call it Muslim immigration and you will be sloppy. The government counted the country on the passport, not the mosque. Bier's own note is that more than a quarter of the refugees from these places were not Muslim. The policy does not ask. That is the argument, and the open-borders people are the ones who proved it works.
21,096 to 808. They drew the chart. They just hated the picture.
